Round 1: Israel Zero, Hezbollah Won

Since I have had so many inquires into my take of the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah I will give my two cents here.
Israel blew it. Several reason why: Arrogant Generals, bad Intel, poorly trained reservists, awful logistics and an inexperienced government.

Arrogant Generals: (read this in an tough Israeli voice it brings much more realism to it).
“Ehh you know, Israel, will take out the Hezbollah once and, ehh, for all. They will no longer, ehh, have the, ehh, capabilities to fires rockets into, ehh, Israel.”

Wrongly the IDF believed they could take out Hezboallah with an air war. Time and time again in history we see this mistake played out over and over. You will always need boots on the ground. War is up close and dirty.

Bad Intel:
“And therefore I say: Know the enemy, know yourself; your victory will never be endangered. Know the ground, know the weather; your victory will then be total.”
- Sun Tzu, The Art of War

In a nutshell, a dismal failure.
Israel had no idea of the number of rockets, the anti-tank capabilities, and most importantly Hezbollahs ability to stand and fight successfully.
A complete malfunction of their intelligence cycle. The Intel cycle consist of the following:
• Planning & Direction
• Collection
• Processing & Exploitation
• Production
• Dissemination
• Utilization
Looks like no planning and direction. A weak collection plan, if any.
Nothing to process or exploit. Thus no need for production and dissemination. Finally, zilch to utilize.

Poorly Trained Reservists:
Many factors contribute to this, arrogance, bad intel, financial constraints, but nevertheless it is sill inexcusable.

Awful Logistics:
Israel was not able to provide the essentials, beans (food and water), bullets, and band aids in a timely manner to their forces. Pathetic and criminal. No excuse.


Inexperienced Government:
The Prime Minster and his cabinet did not have an accurate picture of the battlespace nor the experience to question their military leaders.

My prediction is that Israel will rebound and be stronger and better. However, their poor performance all around is a weakness. This reality will give their enemies strength and the incentive to fight harder and longer.